Photo : Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
26 September 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #316
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan
FRANCE
2023 Budget to be released
On 26 September, the French Finance Minister is expected to reveal the 2023 budget. The promise of the ruling administration is to bring the government budget down by three per cent by 2027. For which spendings have to be increased to provide subsidies for energy bills and keep customers away from inflation, to do that government aims to keep the energy price limited to 15 per cent. French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to increase the retirement age from to 62 to 65 which might trigger strikes and protests. The budget will be a decider for France’s economic performance. (“The world in brief,” The Economist,” 26 September 2022)
ITALY
Italy’s far-right wins the snap elections
On 26 September, the Far-right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni of the nationalist Brothers of Italy party won the Italy elections becoming the first female prime minister. The coalition includes the Brothers of Italy, League, Forza Italia and Noi Moderati, whereas the left alliance consists of the Democratic party, Green/Left Alliance, Piu Europa and Impegno Civico. In term of the seats won, the Right is expected to hold close more than 300 to 330 seats in total in both upper and lower house. Whereas the left will be able to hold only 120 – 140 seats. The snap election was held after the resignation of Mario Draghi’s National Unity Government’s collapse. (“Italian election 2022: live official results,” The Guardian, 26 September 2022; “Giorgia Meloni: Italy's far right on course to win election,” BBC, 26 September 2022
SWITZERLAND
Retirement age limit extended for women
On 25 September, in the voting held by the government the people voted in favour for the reform in government’s pension plan. With the majority of votes of 50.57 per cent, the retirement age will be pushed from 64 to 65 in line with men. Earlier voting attempts failed when held on in 2004 and 2017, upon criticisms from trade-unions, and left-leaning political parties argument on discrimination of women. From the recent voting, major share of votes came from German speaking residing in Switzerland. (“Swiss voters support increase in women's retirement age,” Deutsche Welle, 25 September 2022)
The Czech Republic
Receives fund to cutdown coal usage
On 26 September, European Commission announced “Just Transition Fund (JTF)” programme, under which the Czech Republic will get a grant of EUR 1.64 billion to phase out from using coal by 2033. The fund is also aimed to help in transition of the country to climate neutrality. The programme is also expected to maintain the 21,000 jobs which is dependent on carbon-intensive industries. According to Vice-President for the European Green Deal: “Czechia is a country with a rich industrial tradition and a promising future. Together with the Modernisation Fund, the Czech Just Transition Plan will help deliver a fair transition to climate neutrality, especially for the people in Karlovasky, Ustecky, and Moravskoslezky regions.” (“EU Cohesion Policy: €1.64 billion for a just climate transition in Czechia,” European Commission, 26 September 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 213 & 214
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 25 September, Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council’s Centre for Countering Disinformation reported in a Telegram post that Russia was forcing the Ukrainian prisoners of war (PoWs) was forced to participate in the referendum held in the Olenivka penal colony. According to Russian media sources, Ukraine’s Armed Forces service men and women who are held as prisoners of war with Russian military were allegedly turned into militants who had requested passports of the proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR). The Centre discovered another 57 Ukrainian PoWs were forced to vote in the fake referendum.
The referendums held in Russian-occupied territories had a turnout of 15 per cent in Kherson, 20 per cent in Zaporizhzhia, 22 per cent in Luhansk and 24 per cent in Donetsk. According to the Head of the Luhansk Regional Military, Serhiy Haidai, the Russian troops forced people from Luhansk to participate in the referendum. Russian soldiers were seen holding guns near Luhansk People’s Republic ballots. Russia's referenda were denounced by Ukraine and the West, calling them sham and pseudo-referendums. Three territories had more than 50 per cent agreeing to split with Ukraine, while Kherson had only 49 per cent.
Ukraine revoked the accreditation of Iran’s ambassador after discovering that Iran had supplied drones to Russia. Iran had declared a neutral position but crossed its words by providing arms to Russia, causing a rift between Ukraine and Iran. Following the attack on Odesa port by Russian who were using the Iranian made “Mohajer-6,” drones, there was a drastic reduction in the number of personnel in the Iranian embassy.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 24 September, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, "The entire territory of the Russian Federation, which is confirmed and can be further confirmed in the Russian Constitution, is certainly under the state’s full protection," at a press conference after partaking in the 77th plenary session of the UN General Assembly. Territories such as Donetsk, Luhansk. Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where the referendums are conducted, will be under Russia’s protection once the results are announced.
On the same day, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order postponing the military call-up during partial mobilization for full-time and part-time students who are studying at state educational organizations, research organizations pursuing nationally acknowledged vocational training and higher education programme and those enrolled in educational programs to a similar level for the first time.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 24 September, Institute for the Study of War, a US based think tank reported on Russia’s partial mobilisation. As per its report, the mobilisation efforts seem to be divided, complex and many violations of Russia’s Defense Minister comments were found. The reason behind the violation was observed to be due to confusion in the “chains of responsibility,” in executing the decree. According to Ukrainians, Russian forces were observed to be giving Russian passports to individuals in the Russian occupied territory and has mobilising them to participate in the referendum. The report states another possibility for Ukrainian POW to be treated in the same way.
On 25 September, the government of Finland, announced its decision to pass a resolution on imposing a ban on the entry of Russian using Finland issues visas or Schengen visas. The resolution is expected to passed this week according to Foreign Minister. As per the reports from the Finnish Border Guards, the Russians in the border crossing has increased from 3000 to 6000 in six days.
On 25 September, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz signed a deal with UAE to export LNG, which forms part of the energy security agreement. Through the deal 137,000 cubic meters of LNG will be supplied to Germany through the new LNG terminal near Hamburg. Along with the deal, a memorandum was signed for “long-term deliveries” beginning from 2023. The move is seen as a rectification to dependency over gas from Russia.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 24 September, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said that Iran is planning “a proportional action” against Ukraine after it decided to reduce its diplomatic ties due to Iran supplying drones to Russia. He said, “refrain from being influenced by third parties who seek to destroy relations between the two countries,”. He added that Ukraine’s decision was based on baseless rumours spread by foreign media, but he refrained from mentioning the drones.
References
Center for Anti-Misinformation, “UKRAINIAN PRISONERS OF WAR ARE FORCED TO VOTE IN THE "REFERENDUM",” Telegram, 25 September 2022
“In the bushes and at gunpoint: Invaders holding pseudo-referendum in Luhansk region,” Ukrinform, 25 September 2022
“Ukraine-Russia updates: 'Referendums' to annex Ukrainian territory begin,” Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2022
“Ukraine to strip Iranian ambassador of accreditation over drones,” Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2022
“All potential new Russian territories will be under state’s protection — Lavrov,” TASS, 25 September 2022
“Executive Order On Deferment of Conscription for Military Service during Mobilisation,” kremlin.ru, 24 September 2022
“Finland says traffic 'intensifying' on border with Russia,” euronews, 23 September 2022
“Hungary Tries To Hush EU Talk Of More Russian Sanctions,” rferl.org, 20 September 2022
“Iran will make 'proportional' response to Ukraine reducing ties,” Reuters, 24 September 2022
“RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 24,” ISW, 24 September 2022